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Reasons to invest in gold, silver, and mining companies in 2024
A brief summary of the most important trends and themes for gold, silver, and mining companies in 2024.
There is no bull market quite like a gold bull market
- On December 4th, the price of gold reached a new all-time high, briefly surpassing USD 2,100.
- Gold also displayed strong performance, recording the highest monthly and annual closes, finishing the year at USD 2,063 per troy ounce (+13,2%).
- Simultaneously, the price of silver concluded the year at USD 23.9, yielding a gold-to-silver ratio of 86:1.
- We foresee a sequence of new all-time highs for gold in 2024, signalling a new long-term bull market.
- In this emerging bull market, expected to last many years, we predict the gold-to-silver ratio will drop below 30:1, setting an initial goal for 2024 at 70:1.
- Since the great financial crisis, central banks have consistently increased their gold reserves, setting new records in both 2022 and 2023.
- We believe that central banks will shift away from rate hikes and adopt a more accommodative policy stance in 2024, which will catalyze a substantial upswing in gold prices for the foreseeable future.
- The USD is anticipated to continue its decline against the EUR and GBP in 2024, as the Federal Reserve is likely to commence a cycle of interest rate reductions. Moreover, the USD is gradually shedding some of its premium as the world's reserve currency. Both these factors are expected to provide significant support for gold priced in USD.
- Therefore, we project that gold will close in 2024 with at least a 20 per cent increase in USD and anticipate that mining stocks will surpass the actual commodity in performance.
- Should gold appreciate by 20 per cent, it would end the year at USD 2,475, and with a gold-to-silver ratio of 70:1, silver would close at USD 35, equating to a 48 per cent return.
Golden opportunity for miners
- Gold and silver mining companies are poised to become particularly appealing to European investors in 2024 due to the "2x/FX effect." If mining stocks are twice as leveraged to the price of gold, which we expect to rise by 20 per cent, this will translate to a 40 per cent gain for mining stocks. In combination with a weaker USD, say a 10 per cent drop compared to the EUR/GBP, the net return for a European investor in gold would be a 10 per cent increase and a 30 per cent net return in mining stocks. This would result in a threefold return, not merely double.
- Gold miners are historically undervalued relative to gold, a trend likely to reverse and overshoot during the forthcoming secular gold bull market.
- Gold miners have significantly reduced their debt levels in the past decade, unlike other sectors, which have accumulated more.
- Since 2021, companies in the commodity sector have sustained robust cash flows, with precious metal producers boasting the highest margins.
- Gold miners have become more shareholder-friendly and are more cautious with new costly projects.
- Merger and acquisition activity in the mining sector is vigorous, driving up premiums.
- Gold miners have been conducting record share buybacks over the past two years and they have made the buybacks without financing it with debt as most other sectors.
- There is a strong trend of increasing dividends among gold miners.
Smaller large caps and larger mid-caps are expected to outperform the mega-caps within the sector. - Institutional investment will particularly propel the share prices of ESG-friendly companies and gold mining funds/ETFs with the strongest sustainability credentials.
- Gold miners have a very low correlation with the broader stock market and should become more appealing to large investors seeking alternative sources of return. This should lead to strong capital inflows and, subsequently, higher equity prices.
- Gold miners are also historically undervalued compared to the S&P 500, presenting a unique and attractive entry point.
Disclaimer
Remember that investing in mutual funds always involves a risk. An investment can both increase and decrease in value and it is not certain that you will recover the full amount invested. Further information can be obtained from your financial advisor. AuAg Funds only publishes product- and market-related information and does not make any investment recommendations.
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